Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Jim Thome.... HOFer?

First off, Congratulations Jim Thome.

That is a great milestone and something you should definitely be proud of.  I know the talk has to come up about considering Jim Thome for the hall of fame but can't he just enjoy this moment and the highlight reel of home runs that will be shown on the major sports networks.  Why does the talk immediately have to go to, "Is Jim Thome a hall of famer?"  Even worse is that because of the "Steroid Era" of baseball the guy cannot even be praised without the notion of possible steroid use.  Let's just enjoy this moment of a guy reaching a milestone that only 7 other people have achieved in over 100 years of baseball. 

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Ok that is enough reveling in this achievement.  As a sports fan I cannot help but breakdown this argument.  First off this idea of a hall of fame.  By it's designation the hall of fame should have anyone or anything related to baseball that is famous or infamous.  Fame by definition is "widespread reputation, renown, public eminance" (Dictionary.com).  BTW its funny how typing fame into a search engine gives about a page and a half of links unrelated to the english word fame or its meaning or definition.  Is Jim Thome "renown" or have a "widespread reputation"?  Can we blame him for not being linked to the steroid conversation or for not having a polarizing personality?  I say no.  He quietly reached this milestone and that should not be a knock on his eligibility for the hall.

I believe that not being elite or a standout at any particular position will be a criticism when considering Thome for the hall of fame.  From my understanding he was a third and first baseman and then a DH.  I will not do it here but I could probably list at least five people in each of those positions that could be considered elite at those positions.  Does that mean Thome is not worthy of the hall of fame?  No.  But then the idea that people talk about then is "Well with the statistical performance Thome should be in the hall of fame, but he will probably be a Third or Fourth ballot hall of famer."

This is something that bothers me.  Why should it take so many chances for a retired player to be considered into the hall of fame.  Have the stats or performance changed at all?  Not to my knowledge.  But there is this unspoken code that nobody should ever be a 100 percent voted HOFer or his stats are good but lets belittle this accomplishment by putting this player in on his third chance?  REALLY?  Now are there some non-first ballot HOFers I believe should still be in.  Yes!  But I also believe they should have been considered from the first ballot.  The most recent being Bert Blyleven.  I feel he should have been in the hall long ago.  Blyleven has well over 3000 k's, nearly every outing was a complete game, and he had a wicked curveball.  But for the average fan, other than helping the Minnesota Twins win the 1987 World Series most people would not even know the name.  Especially on a team where the iconic figure was Kirby Puckett.  Back to Thome, is he a first ballot HOFer?  I say yes, but based on statistics.

Another argument that I have actually considered came from Colin Cowherd.  I was listening to the Herd on my local affiliate and Cowherd was explaining the idea that of the 8 guys in the 600 club, 5 of them reached the milestone after the year 2000.  This had to do with guys becoming naturally (and for some synthetically) stronger and bigger, pitchers throwing up to 10 mph faster than before 1980, and having a lower mound and some homer friendly parks.  I have to agree that this makes the feat a little less glamourous, but if you look at the next guys who are realistically is reach of hitting 600, only Pujols and Andruw Jones are in striking distance.  Pujols currently has 437 and is 31 years old.  If Pujols averages 35 hrs a season it would still take 5 seasons to hit that mark.  Definitely within reach.  A. Jones is 34 and has 414 hrs.  He realisitically has 5-6 years left and would have to hit about 32-39 hrs a season.  Possible but a little less probable.  Vlad Guerrero is in the conversation but his HR production has been on the decline and would need 40 HRs a year to hit 600 by his 40 bday.  Not likely to happen.

I believe of the active players, taking into account age and current total that only 4 players are realistically within reach of 600; Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and (wait for it) Mark Teixeira.  Now I am not a total stat geek and will not take the time to fully analyze this statistic (unless someone paid me for it =D) but thats only a total of 6 by my could who could make the 600 club.  And there is no guarantee any of these guys will reach that total, except for maybe Pujols.  I believe Thome should be considered for the Hall of Fame and it should be on a first ballot.  But I would almost guarantee that he will not make it until his 3 or 4th ballot.

What's your take?

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